Report · October 2026 edition
Poland’s demographics and the housing market: where the demand is heading.
The latest data on population, pay and new-flat supply in Poland and its 18 voivodeship capitals, read from a residential investor’s perspective: migration, the 25–39 age group, suburbanisation, wages and developer offer.
37.24m
people living in Poland on 30.06.2026
−495
fewer people every day in H1 2026
+24
new residents a day in Kraków (y/y)
At a glance
Key findings
Poland is losing almost 500 residents a day.
On 30 June 2026 Poland had 37,242,958 residents, 89,552 fewer than at the end of 2025 (−0.24%). The decline is driven by natural decrease: 1.83 deaths for every birth. Net international migration was positive but small.
37.24m
population on 30.06.2026; a year earlier 37.40m
−89.6k
change in H1 2026, about 495 a day
−95.2k
natural change; a year earlier −92.6k
114.9k
live births; about 1k fewer than in H1 2025
210.0k
deaths; about 2k more than in H1 2025
+5.6k
net international migration (permanent)
Births are now 41% below deaths
Births and deaths in Poland, thousands per year
Chart data
| Year | Births, thousands | Deaths, thousands |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 547.7 | 390.3 |
| 2000 | 378.3 | 368.0 |
| 2010 | 413.3 | 378.5 |
| 2015 | 369.3 | 394.9 |
| 2020 | 355.3 | 477.4 |
| 2025 | 238.3 | 405.7 |
Source: Statistics Poland (GUS), “Population. Size and structure of population and vital statistics in Poland by territorial division in 2026. As of 30 June” (October 2026), and the editions as of 30.06.2025 and 31.12.2025; Reaxis calculations.
Only 3 of 18 regional capitals are growing.
Over the year (30.06.2025 → 30.06.2026) the 18 voivodeship capitals lost a combined 10,809 residents (−0.14%), slower than Poland as a whole (−0.43%). Wrocław is flat (+34 people). Kraków clearly stands out; at the other end are Kielce, Gorzów, Bydgoszcz and Łódź.
+8,903
new Kraków residents in a year, about 24 a day. Three times as many as Warsaw (+2,894).
−5,837
Łódź residents lost in a year, about 16 a day. The largest decline in absolute terms.
Kraków grows by +1.10%, Kielce shrinks by 0.95%
Population change y/y, 30.06.2025 → 30.06.2026
Chart data
| City | Population 30.06.2026 | Change y/y | Change y/y, % | People per day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraków | 819,493 | +8,903 | +1.10% | +24.4 |
| Rzeszów | 199,604 | +1,064 | +0.54% | +2.9 |
| Warsaw | 1,866,929 | +2,894 | +0.16% | +7.9 |
| Wrocław | 672,579 | +34 | +0.01% | +0.1 |
| Gdańsk | 489,050 | −110 | −0.02% | −0.3 |
| Zielona Góra | 138,312 | −448 | −0.32% | −1.2 |
| Poznań | 533,110 | −1,803 | −0.34% | −4.9 |
| Białystok | 288,476 | −1,209 | −0.42% | −3.3 |
| Katowice | 276,563 | −1,321 | −0.48% | −3.6 |
| Lublin | 325,745 | −1,639 | −0.50% | −4.5 |
| Olsztyn | 164,999 | −856 | −0.52% | −2.3 |
| Toruń | 192,159 | −1,065 | −0.55% | −2.9 |
| Opole | 124,260 | −835 | −0.67% | −2.3 |
| Szczecin | 382,271 | −2,887 | −0.75% | −7.9 |
| Łódź | 636,753 | −5,837 | −0.91% | −16.0 |
| Bydgoszcz | 319,528 | −2,936 | −0.91% | −8.0 |
| Gorzów Wlkp. | 113,032 | −1,044 | −0.92% | −2.9 |
| Kielce | 177,980 | −1,714 | −0.95% | −4.7 |
18 capitals in 16 voivodeships: in Kuyavian-Pomeranian the seats of government are Bydgoszcz (governor) and Toruń (regional assembly); in Lubusz, Gorzów Wlkp. (governor) and Zielona Góra (regional assembly).
Growth comes from migration, not births.
In H1 2026 all of the 12 largest cities recorded more deaths than births. Whether a city grows depends on net migration. In Kraków it was +3,194 people in six months (+2,505 from within Poland), in Warsaw +1,678, in Wrocław +632. In Łódź, Bydgoszcz and Szczecin more people leave than arrive.
92%
Kraków’s ratio of births to deaths, the best among the 12 largest cities.
2×
Kraków’s population gain in H1 2026 (+2,879) vs H1 2025 (+1,422). Inflow from the rest of Poland doubled: +2,505 vs +1,211.
2.4×
more deaths than births in Łódź. An older age structure locks in decline for years.
Kraków: smallest natural decrease and largest inflow
Components of population change in H1 2026, people; 12 largest cities
Chart data
| City | Natural change | Net migration | Total change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kraków | −315 | +3,194 | +2,879 |
| Warsaw | −1,478 | +1,678 | +200 |
| Rzeszów | −5 | +173 | +168 |
| Wrocław | −654 | +632 | −22 |
| Gdańsk | −730 | +452 | −278 |
| Białystok | −338 | −403 | −741 |
| Katowice | −870 | +18 | −852 |
| Lublin | −575 | −365 | −940 |
| Poznań | −973 | −156 | −1,129 |
| Szczecin | −1,198 | −317 | −1,515 |
| Bydgoszcz | −1,100 | −472 | −1,572 |
| Łódź | −2,756 | −381 | −3,137 |
The pool of first-time buyers is shrinking.
People aged 25–39 are the main first-time buyers and renters. In one year their number in Poland fell by 249,245 (−3.4%), as the small cohorts born around 2000 enter this age range. The decline shows in every large city, but at different speeds: only −1.0% in Kraków, more than −4% in Szczecin and Bydgoszcz.
25.7%
share of 25–39-year-olds in Kraków and Wrocław; 18.9% in Łódź, 18.8% across Poland.
+127k
more people aged 65+ in one year. They now make up 21.3% of Poland’s population (26.3% in Łódź).
Kraków loses the fewest people aged 25–39
Change in the number of people aged 25–39 y/y (30.06.2025 → 30.06.2026)
Chart data
| City | People aged 25–39 | Change y/y | Share of population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kraków | 210,687 | −1.0% | 25.7% |
| Gdańsk | 115,334 | −2.7% | 23.6% |
| Poznań | 131,540 | −2.9% | 24.7% |
| Wrocław | 173,118 | −3.3% | 25.7% |
| Katowice | 58,141 | −3.3% | 21.0% |
| Warsaw | 421,996 | −3.4% | 22.6% |
| Lublin | 67,200 | −3.6% | 20.6% |
| Łódź | 120,098 | −3.8% | 18.9% |
| Białystok | 58,812 | −4.1% | 20.4% |
| Rzeszów | 43,810 | −4.1% | 21.9% |
| Bydgoszcz | 59,734 | −4.3% | 18.7% |
| Szczecin | 72,977 | −4.5% | 19.1% |
| Poland | 6,986,789 | −3.4% | 18.8% |
Ages 25–39 and 65+ calculated from GUS table 6 (population of powiats by age) for cities with powiat status.
Demand is moving out of the city.
In 8 of 9 metropolitan areas the municipalities bordering the city grow faster than the city itself, mainly through people moving out of the core. The 11 municipalities around Poznań gained 4,008 residents in a year while Poznań lost 1,803. The fastest-growing rings surround Białystok (+1.92%) and Wrocław (+1.74%).
+1.10%
Kraków is the exception: the city grows faster than the 13 municipalities around it (+0.40%).
Municipalities around cities grow faster than the cities
Population change y/y: city vs all municipalities bordering it
Chart data
| City | City y/y | Bordering municipalities | Municipalities y/y | Fastest-growing municipality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Białystok | −0.42% | 7 | +1.92% | Grabówka (+3.30%) |
| Wrocław | +0.01% | 8 | +1.74% | Czernica (+3.31%) |
| Gdańsk | −0.02% | 6 | +1.13% | Kolbudy (+2.40%) |
| Poznań | −0.34% | 11 | +1.11% | Kleszczewo (+2.61%) |
| Rzeszów | +0.54% | 8 | +0.95% | Krasne (+1.56%) |
| Warsaw | +0.16% | 18 | +0.72% | Lesznowola (+3.72%) |
| Kraków | +1.10% | 13 | +0.40% | Wielka Wieś (+0.91%) |
| Szczecin | −0.75% | 7 | +0.38% | Kobylanka (+2.55%) |
| Łódź | −0.91% | 12 | −0.18% | Pabianice (rural) (+1.55%) |
Ring = all municipalities (gminas) sharing a border with the city, based on OpenStreetMap administrative boundaries, regardless of county; e.g. for Kraków this includes Wielka Wieś and Koniusza (Proszowice county), for Warsaw 18 municipalities in 6 counties. Gdańsk excludes Gdynia and Sopot. Urban-rural municipalities counted in full.
Kraków now out-earns Warsaw.
In August 2026 the average gross wage in Kraków’s enterprise sector reached PLN 11,547, ahead of Warsaw (PLN 11,239) and 25% above the national average (PLN 9,260). Poznań recorded the fastest growth (+11.6% y/y). At the other end, Kielce (+1.4%) and Zielona Góra (−0.8%) lag behind.
+PLN 308
Kraków’s lead over Warsaw in average monthly pay, August 2026.
PLN 3,743
gap between the highest-paying city (Kraków) and the lowest (Kielce).
Average gross monthly wage, August 2026
Enterprise sector, PLN; change y/y on the right
Chart data
| City | Average wage, PLN | Change y/y |
|---|---|---|
| Kraków | 11,547 | +6.5% |
| Warsaw | 11,239 | +7.0% |
| Gdańsk | 10,645 | +2.7% |
| Poznań | 10,604 | +11.6% |
| Wrocław | 9,984 | +5.2% |
| Katowice | 9,963 | +5.1% |
| Szczecin | 9,600 | +6.0% |
| Rzeszów | 9,183 | +5.4% |
| Opole | 8,841 | +6.6% |
| Zielona Góra | 8,827 | −0.8% |
| Łódź | 8,796 | +6.2% |
| Lublin | 8,773 | +6.0% |
| Toruń | 8,684 | +6.9% |
| Bydgoszcz | 8,582 | +5.3% |
| Olsztyn | 8,396 | +5.4% |
| Gorzów Wlkp. | 8,031 | +6.6% |
| Białystok | 7,984 | +6.9% |
| Kielce | 7,804 | +1.4% |
| Poland | 9,260 |
Average gross monthly wage in the enterprise sector (firms with more than 9 employees), August 2026. Source: Statistics Poland (GUS), “City statistics. Monthly signal information” (statystykamiast.stat.gov.pl).
Where buyers have the most choice.
Developers’ public price lists show about 71,428 flats on offer in the 18 capitals. Relative to population, supply is deepest in Katowice (16.0 per 1,000 residents), Gdańsk (14.4) and Łódź (13.0). Warsaw has the largest offer (13,882 flats) but only 7.4 per 1,000. Białystok, Olsztyn, Gorzów and Opole have fewer than 4.
0.73 m²
of a new flat in Kraków for one month’s average pay (median offer PLN 15,750/m²); 0.65 m² in Warsaw, 0.79 m² in Łódź.
Katowice, Gdańsk and Łódź offer the most flats per resident
Developer flats on offer per 1,000 residents, October 2026
Chart data
| City | Flats on offer | Per 1,000 residents | Median price, PLN/m² | m² per month’s pay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katowice | 4,424 | 16.0 | 12,152 | 0.82 |
| Gdańsk | 7,046 | 14.4 | 16,605 | 0.64 |
| Łódź | 8,281 | 13.0 | 11,079 | 0.79 |
| Poznań | 6,584 | 12.4 | 13,386 | 0.79 |
| Wrocław | 8,001 | 11.9 | 15,444 | 0.65 |
| Kraków | 8,855 | 10.8 | 15,750 | 0.73 |
| Lublin | 3,506 | 10.8 | 11,800 | 0.74 |
| Warsaw | 13,882 | 7.4 | 17,230 | 0.65 |
| Szczecin | 2,748 | 7.2 | 11,865 | 0.81 |
| Toruń | 1,364 | 7.1 | 11,500 | 0.76 |
| Rzeszów | 1,402 | 7.0 | 10,441 | 0.88 |
| Kielce | 1,020 | 5.7 | 11,050 | 0.71 |
| Bydgoszcz | 1,476 | 4.6 | 10,695 | 0.80 |
| Białystok | 1,113 | 3.9 | 12,000 | 0.67 |
| Zielona Góra | 478 | 3.5 | 10,250 | 0.86 |
| Olsztyn | 549 | 3.3 | 11,100 | 0.76 |
| Gorzów Wlkp. | 354 | 3.1 | 9,300 | 0.86 |
| Opole | 345 | 2.8 | 11,000 | 0.80 |
Developer offer = flats in active price lists that developers must publish on dane.gov.pl (lists updated since 16.09.2026, read on 16.10.2026), excluding units marked as sold; investment location as declared by the developer. About 91% of active price lists in the 18 cities could be read automatically and some lists do not mark sold units, so figures are indicative.
Demand and supply don’t always meet.
Setting population change against developer supply shows where new flats meet growing demand. Kraków combines the fastest population growth with above-median supply. Łódź and Katowice have ample supply in shrinking cities, a buyer’s market with pressure on prices. Warsaw and Rzeszów are growing with supply close to the median.
+8,903
new Kraków residents in a year against 8,855 developer flats on offer.
−5,837
Łódź residents lost in a year, while developers offer 8,281 flats.
Population change vs developer supply, 18 regional capitals
Each bubble is a city; size = flats on offer
Chart data
| City | Population change y/y | Flats per 1,000 residents | Flats on offer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kraków | +1.10% | 10.8 | 8,855 |
| Rzeszów | +0.54% | 7.0 | 1,402 |
| Warsaw | +0.16% | 7.4 | 13,882 |
| Wrocław | +0.01% | 11.9 | 8,001 |
| Gdańsk | −0.02% | 14.4 | 7,046 |
| Zielona Góra | −0.32% | 3.5 | 478 |
| Poznań | −0.34% | 12.4 | 6,584 |
| Białystok | −0.42% | 3.9 | 1,113 |
| Katowice | −0.48% | 16.0 | 4,424 |
| Lublin | −0.50% | 10.8 | 3,506 |
| Olsztyn | −0.52% | 3.3 | 549 |
| Toruń | −0.55% | 7.1 | 1,364 |
| Opole | −0.67% | 2.8 | 345 |
| Szczecin | −0.75% | 7.2 | 2,748 |
| Łódź | −0.91% | 13.0 | 8,281 |
| Bydgoszcz | −0.91% | 4.6 | 1,476 |
| Gorzów Wlkp. | −0.92% | 3.1 | 354 |
| Kielce | −0.95% | 5.7 | 1,020 |
Developer offer = flats in active price lists that developers must publish on dane.gov.pl (lists updated since 16.09.2026, read on 16.10.2026), excluding units marked as sold; investment location as declared by the developer. About 91% of active price lists in the 18 cities could be read automatically and some lists do not mark sold units, so figures are indicative. Bubble size = number of flats on offer.
Mortgage demand is up 17% year on year.
In September 2026 banks and credit unions (SKOK) sent BIK mortgage enquiries worth 17.2% more than in September 2025, per working day. More people applied for a mortgage than a year and a month earlier, and the average requested loan stayed above PLN 520k.
BIK’s view
Growth in the number of applicants is expected to slow in the coming months, mainly because of a high base: demand had already picked up clearly in 2025.
Part of the demand comes from refinancing existing mortgages, as borrowers look for lower debt-servicing costs, not only from planned property purchases.
Despite the expected slowdown, the fundamentals of mortgage demand remain relatively strong, with activity well above last year’s level.
+17.2%
BIK mortgage demand index, September 2026 vs September 2025 (value of enquiries per working day)
+9.7%
number of applicants vs September 2025
+10.1%
number of applicants vs August 2026
PLN 522.4k
average requested loan: +6.9% y/y, −0.6% vs August 2026
Source: BIK (Biuro Informacji Kredytowej), press release “BIK: Popyt na kredyty mieszkaniowe we wrześniu 2026”, 12.10.2026, https://media.bik.pl/informacje-prasowe/878172/bik-indeks-popytu_na_kredytymieszkaniowe-we-wrzesniu-2026_10_12224201
What it means for the housing market.
01
Demographic demand is concentrated in a few cities.
Only 3 of the 18 voivodeship capitals are clearly growing year on year: Kraków, Rzeszów, Warsaw. Wrocław is flat (+34 people). Kraków gained 8,903 residents (+1.10%), about 24 people a day.
02
Growth comes from migration, not births.
In H1 2026 every large city recorded more deaths than births. Kraków added +3,194 people through migration, Warsaw +1,678. These are newcomers looking for a home, not organic growth.
03
The first-time buyer pool is shrinking.
Poland has 249k fewer people aged 25–39 than a year ago (−3.4%). In Kraków the decline was only −1.0%. Rental, investment demand and trading up are gaining weight.
04
Growth is moving beyond city limits.
Poznań lost 1,803 people, while the 11 municipalities bordering it gained 4,008. Wrocław is flat, but its neighbouring municipalities grew by +1.74% y/y. This supports land in the first ring of municipalities with good access to the city.
05
Ageing is reshaping demand.
The 65+ population grew by 127k in a year and now makes up 21.3% of Poland (in Łódź 26.3%). That means future supply on the secondary market and demand for senior living formats.
06
Pay supports demand in Kraków and Warsaw.
Enterprise-sector wages reached PLN 11,547 in Kraków and PLN 11,239 in Warsaw in August 2026, 21–25% above the national average. A month’s pay buys about 0.73 m² of a new flat in Kraków and 0.65 m² in Warsaw. BIK’s mortgage demand index was up 17.2% y/y in September 2026.
07
Supply is deepest where demand is weakest.
Łódź (13.0 developer flats per 1,000 residents) and Katowice (16.0) combine ample supply with shrinking populations. Kraków is the only large city with both clear growth and above-median supply.
GUS data cover people registered for permanent residence and temporary stays of over 3 months. They do not fully capture students or unregistered foreigners, so the actual population of large cities is higher than official statistics show.
Source: Statistics Poland (GUS), “Population. Size and structure of population and vital statistics in Poland by territorial division in 2026. As of 30 June” (October 2026), and the editions as of 30.06.2025 and 31.12.2025; Reaxis calculations.
Frequently asked questions
Which regional capitals in Poland are growing?
Only 3 of the 18 voivodeship capitals are clearly growing year on year: Kraków, Rzeszów, Warsaw. Wrocław is flat (+34 people). Kraków gained 8,903 residents (+1.10%), about 24 people a day.
Why do some cities grow even though deaths outnumber births?
In H1 2026 every large city recorded more deaths than births. Kraków added +3,194 people through migration, Warsaw +1,678. These are newcomers looking for a home, not organic growth.
How is the number of people aged 25–39, the main first-time buyers, changing?
Poland has 249k fewer people aged 25–39 than a year ago (−3.4%). In Kraków the decline was only −1.0%. Rental, investment demand and trading up are gaining weight.
Is housing demand moving from cities to suburban municipalities?
Poznań lost 1,803 people, while the 11 municipalities bordering it gained 4,008. Wrocław is flat, but its neighbouring municipalities grew by +1.74% y/y. This supports land in the first ring of municipalities with good access to the city.
How is population ageing affecting the housing market?
The 65+ population grew by 127k in a year and now makes up 21.3% of Poland (in Łódź 26.3%). That means future supply on the secondary market and demand for senior living formats.
How much do people earn in Kraków and Warsaw, and how many square metres of a new flat does a month’s pay buy?
Enterprise-sector wages reached PLN 11,547 in Kraków and PLN 11,239 in Warsaw in August 2026, 21–25% above the national average. A month’s pay buys about 0.73 m² of a new flat in Kraków and 0.65 m² in Warsaw. BIK’s mortgage demand index was up 17.2% y/y in September 2026.
Where is developer supply largest relative to demand?
Łódź (13.0 developer flats per 1,000 residents) and Katowice (16.0) combine ample supply with shrinking populations. Kraków is the only large city with both clear growth and above-median supply.
Data sources
- Statistics Poland (GUS) – “Population. Size and structure of population and vital statistics in Poland by territorial division”, as of 30.06.2026, 31.12.2025 and 30.06.2025
- Statistics Poland (GUS) – “City statistics. Monthly signal information”, enterprise-sector wages, August 2026
- Developers’ price lists published on dane.gov.pl, read on 16.10.2026
- BIK – press release on mortgage demand in September 2026, 12.10.2026
- OpenStreetMap – municipal administrative boundaries (suburban rings)
- Reaxis calculations
Reaxis is a boutique advisory firm specialising in real estate brokerage across the Polish market. We work with institutional investors, private capital, developers and property owners – on single assets and portfolios, from residential and hotels to office, logistics, data centers and land. What makes us different is hands-on development experience. Beyond brokerage, we’ve been on the other side of the table: originating projects, raising capital, managing construction, and delivering buildings. Most brokers haven’t. And that changes how we read a deal, price a risk, and advise a client.
© 2026 Reaxis. All rights reserved. This report has been prepared by Reaxis for information purposes only. All information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, including Statistics Poland (GUS), developers’ price lists published on dane.gov.pl and OpenStreetMap; however, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Figures marked as estimates are based on Reaxis calculations and may differ from official statistics. Neither Reaxis nor any of its affiliates accepts any liability for any loss arising from the use of this report or its contents. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal or tax advice, and it should not be relied upon as such. Text version (Markdown).