In October 2026 developers sold over 850 apartments in Kraków. It was the best month of the year and clearly more than came onto the market in the same period. A landowner might read this as a signal to raise the price. The data does not support that: apartment prices are rising ever more slowly, and land value depends on the gap between apartment prices and costs, not on the number of units sold.
What the data shows
The figures below are preliminary Otodom Analytics data for October 2026, covering the developer market within city limits.
- Sales in Kraków: over 850 apartments, the best monthly result since the start of 2026.
- New supply in Kraków: about 550 apartments (read from the chart in Otodom's release).
- Asking prices in Kraków: +1.8% year on year, compared with +4.7% in May. Annual growth has slowed for five months in a row and is below inflation, which Statistics Poland's (GUS) flash estimate put at 3.5% year on year in October.
- Time to sell the current offer in Kraków: 4.7 quarters, the fifth result among the seven largest markets.
Across the seven largest markets, sales also outpace supply on a year-to-date basis. From January to October almost 42,000 apartments were sold and 37,000 launched, so sales were about 13% above new supply. Over the same period sales rose 39% year on year and launches only 3%.
Why the sales figure alone settles little
It is one month of preliminary data. The October figure may be revised. Otodom itself considers that sales across the seven markets fell short of expectations, by as much as several hundred apartments.
Sales largely close earlier decisions. Sales are signed contracts, usually preceded by a reservation, so the October result also reflects record reservations from September. New reservations across the seven markets were about 3,000, down 14% on the previous month and below the number of apartments launched (about 3,900). The pool of reservations fell from 7,200 to 6,800 apartments. Demand remains high, but it is not accelerating.
The offer is not shrinking. Despite sales exceeding launches, the seven markets have over 59,000 apartments on offer, slightly more than a month earlier. Otodom attributes this to many units returning to the offer from the reservation pool. The release does not say how the offer changed in Kraków itself, so it cannot be used to claim that it is contracting here.
The average price of sold apartments is not a trend. In Kraków it fell from almost PLN 18,000/m² in September to just over PLN 16,000/m² in October. Otodom regards the September jump as temporary. This average depends heavily on which apartments happened to sell, so it should be read neither as a price cut nor as a benchmark for a plot.
How a developer converts this into a land price
A developer values land using the residual method: costs and the expected margin are deducted from apartment sales revenue. Land is what remains, so it reacts more strongly than apartment prices. This works in both directions.
A simple example shows this. The figures are rounded and illustrative. They do not describe a specific plot or market rates.
| PLN per m² of PUM (usable residential area) | Starting point | Price +1.8%, costs unchanged | Price +1.8%, costs +3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales revenue | 16,000 | 16,288 | 16,288 |
| Costs and margin | 12,000 | 12,000 | 12,420 |
| Affordable land price | 4,000 | 4,288 | 3,868 |
| Change in land price | +7.2% | -3.3% |
A 1.8% rise in apartment prices can therefore justify a higher land price only if costs rise more slowly. If they rise in line with inflation, the same price growth means a lower land price, despite strong sales.
What gives a plot its advantage
Strong sales increase developers' interest in replenishing their offer, but not equally for every plot. What counts is how quickly construction and sales can start on it.
This matters particularly in Kraków. Since 1 September 2026 the land-use study (studium) has no longer applied, and new zoning decisions (WZ) can be issued only in an infill development area (OUZ) designated in a general plan, which the city does not have. Plots with a local zoning plan allowing multi-family housing or with a final zoning decision are therefore in a stronger position, as are those with clear legal title and a calculated development capacity.
In our view, the owner of such a plot has a strong negotiating argument today, but that argument is readiness to start, not October's sales figure.
Frequently asked questions
How many apartments were sold in Kraków in October 2026?
According to preliminary Otodom Analytics data, over 850, the best monthly result since the start of 2026. The data covers the developer market within the city limits.
Are apartment prices in Kraków rising faster than inflation?
No. In October 2026 asking prices for new apartments were 1.8% higher than a year earlier, while inflation was 3.5% year on year according to the GUS flash estimate.
Do strong apartment sales raise the price of a plot?
Not automatically. A developer values land using the residual method, so the price depends on the relationship between revenue and costs and margin. With slowly rising apartment prices and rising costs, the affordable land price may even fall.
What is the time to sell the current offer?
It is the number of quarters needed to sell all available apartments at the current pace of sales. Otodom calculates it from sales over the last three months. In Kraków in October 2026 it was 4.7 quarters.