The end of mortgage subsidy programmes: impact on demand and developers' strategies

The Polish government has officially withdrawn the draft act on the "Kredyt na start" first-home mortgage. The programme, announced as the successor to "Bezpieczny kredyt 2%" (Safe Mortgage 2%), will not go ahead. After eighteen months of uncertainty, the housing market finally knows where it stands – and must rely on market demand rather than subsidies. For developers, it is a signal to change strategy; for landowners, a prompt to assess realistically how developers will now calculate the value of plots.

A brief history: from "Safe Mortgage 2%" to "Kredyt na start"

In 2023, "Safe Mortgage 2%" strongly stimulated demand, especially for smaller apartments in large cities. Applications were accepted until the turn of 2023 and 2024, and the scale of interest translated into rapid price growth and developers selling out their stock.

The announced successor – "Kredyt na start", popularly called the 0% mortgage – was due to launch in 2024. Its start date kept slipping, and in autumn 2024 the funds reserved for the programme were redirected to flood relief. For many months the market was in limbo: some buyers postponed decisions, hoping for subsidies. The official withdrawal of the draft closes that chapter.

Demand without subsidies

No programme does not mean no demand. It means a different kind of demand:

• A larger role for cash buyers and investors. In large cities, especially Kraków, a significant share of purchases is made by buyers who do not use a mortgage or use one only partly.
• Market-rate mortgages that depend on interest rates. In May and July 2025, the Monetary Policy Council cut interest rates, improving borrowing capacity. This is a gradual process, however, not an impulse comparable to a subsidy.
• More rational purchasing decisions. Without the time pressure created by a programme, buyers compare offers more carefully – helped also by the price transparency rules now coming into force.

How developers' strategies are changing

Our conversations with developers looking for land point to several clear trends:

1. Selectivity in land acquisition. Developers focus on locations where demand is resilient to the absence of subsidies – well connected, with access to services and green space.
2. Adjusting the unit mix. Projects whose offer matches the needs of cash buyers and investors, rather than only the limits of a government programme, are gaining importance.
3. Phasing projects. Larger schemes are split into phases to match the pace of new supply to current sales.
4. More cautious assumptions in land valuation. A developer values a plot on the basis of expected sale prices and the pace of absorption. Without subsidies, these assumptions are more conservative.

What it means for landowners

Good land still finds buyers. Plots with a settled planning status in good locations remain the subject of competition between developers – regardless of government programmes. Developers need to rebuild their land banks to maintain continuity of sales in the coming years.

Preparing the sale becomes more important. When a developer calculates more cautiously, every element of risk – an unclear legal title, no access to a road, utilities not in place – translates into a lower price offer. Preparing the documentation properly before going to market reduces that risk.

The structure of the transaction matters. In a period of greater caution among developers, solutions such as deferred payment, conditional agreements or mechanisms linking part of the price to obtaining a building permit are used more often. A well-structured agreement makes it possible to achieve a higher price without shifting excessive risk onto the seller.

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